Representatives from Germany, France, and the UK will meet with Iranian counterparts in Istanbul on Friday to negotiate the future of Iran's nuclear program. Failure to reach an agreement risks triggering a renewed wave of sanctions against Iran. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent of damage to Iranian nuclear facilities following attacks in June, with differing expert opinions on Iran's ability to quickly resume enrichment. Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) believes Iran retains significant stockpiles of enriched uranium and the technical capability to resume enrichment. Michael Brzoska of the University of Hamburg suggests that damage to centrifuges may hinder Iran's ability to quickly enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels.

A July deadline set by the three European nations and the US for a nuclear agreement is looming. If no agreement is reached by the end of August, the European partners will reinstate previous UN sanctions against Iran through a "snapback" mechanism in the 2016 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). While the US, having withdrawn from the JCPOA in 2018, cannot trigger the snapback, it has imposed its own sanctions on Iran. Iran continues to deny military intentions for its nuclear program, but its actions have raised concerns among other states. Experts suggest the best possible outcome of the upcoming talks is an extension to the August deadline.

Impact Statement: The outcome of the Istanbul talks will significantly impact Iran's economy and international relations, potentially leading to renewed sanctions and further regional instability.