Recent violence in Sweida province, Syria, has left around 600-1200 people dead, according to differing reports from the Syrian Network for Human Rights and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The conflict, between Druze fighters and Bedouin communities, began approximately 10 days prior to reporting and prompted the Syrian government to evacuate roughly 1,500 Bedouin-Sunni families. This violence adds to pressure on the interim government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former rebel militia leader. Previous intercommunal violence in March resulted in approximately 1,500 deaths. A fact-finding report on the March incidents concluded that over 1,426 people were killed due to widespread criminal activity, but Syrian military commanders were not responsible.

Al-Sharaa's government faces internal and external pressure. Internally, hardcore elements within his own support base may clash with other community groups, potentially igniting another civil war. Externally, pressure comes from former Assad regime supporters, Iranian-affiliated forces, and criminal groups. Experts express concerns about al-Sharaa's ability to maintain control, particularly given the sectarian divisions among his supporters and the desire for revenge among various community groups. Despite these challenges, al-Sharaa retains some support, particularly among Sunni Syrians, but faces skepticism from minority groups. International actors such as the US and Gulf states are supporting al-Sharaa due to their interest in maintaining stability, while Israel's actions are viewed as counterproductive.

Impact Statement: The ongoing violence and political instability in Syria threaten regional stability and complicate efforts towards a lasting peace. The success or failure of al-Sharaa's government will have significant implications for the future of Syria and its relationships with regional and international actors.