Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) party faces a significant crisis as voters across 31 districts participate in a mass referendum, potentially removing nearly two-thirds of its legislators. The "Great Recall," starting this weekend, is the largest of its kind in Taiwan's history and could cost the KMT its legislative majority coalition. The vote will impact Taiwan's domestic politics for the next three years and President William Lai Ching-te's ability to implement key policies, including defense spending. Voters will decide on recalls for 24 KMT legislators this weekend, with seven more facing votes in late August. A successful recall requires 25 percent voter participation and a majority vote in favor of removal.

The KMT, holding a 62-seat majority coalition including allies, has used its power to block the agenda of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and President Lai. However, the recall effort, fueled by successful petition campaigns and widespread mobilization, has created an unprecedented situation. Experts express uncertainty about the outcome, citing the unusual scale of the recall effort and the potential impact of bad weather. KMT members argue the recalls are politically motivated, driven by the DPP framing the KMT as "pro-China" to mobilize voters.

The recall results will significantly impact President Lai’s ability to govern effectively, particularly concerning defense and foreign policy, given Taiwan's complex geopolitical situation and the ongoing threat of conflict with China. The KMT's actions, including significant budget cuts to defense spending, have angered voters and alienated traditional supporters. Economic factors, such as rising living costs and the impact of past US trade policies, may also influence voter decisions.

Impact Statement: The outcome of the recall vote will dramatically reshape Taiwan's political landscape, impacting the stability of the government and its ability to address critical issues, including national defense in the context of China's threat.