Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claimed on CBS's Face the Nation (July 20) that tariffs are generating ~$30 billion monthly, helping to reduce the US deficit and strengthen the nation. However, this assertion is disputed. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that 10 years of increased tariff revenue under President Trump's policies will not cover the added deficits from his tax-and-spending legislation, totaling $3.4 trillion, in addition to the existing projected $21.8 trillion deficit over the next decade. Estimates from the CBO and a calculation based on June 2025 tariff revenue ($27 billion) both project significantly less revenue (~$2.5 trillion to ~$2.8 trillion) over ten years than the projected deficits. Further uncertainty exists due to the administration’s fluctuating tariff policies and ongoing legal challenges. Steve Ellis of Taxpayers for Common Sense stated, "I can’t envision a scenario where the tariff revenues eliminate the deficit."

The Penn-Wharton Budget Model shows that tariff revenue increased from under $48 billion in the same period of 2024 to approximately $100 billion by July 11. This increase reflects the Trump administration's more aggressive tariff policies, currently a baseline 10 percent for all countries, with additional tariffs on certain products. Economists predict that consumers will bear a significant portion of these increased tariff costs. Even if upheld on appeal, the legal challenges to these policies could limit their revenue-generating potential. A change in administration could also reverse the tariffs.

Impact Statement: President Trump's tariff policies, while increasing government revenue, are insufficient to offset projected federal deficits over the next decade, according to multiple independent analyses.