Following over two years of civil war, Sudan is effectively divided. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), under General Abdelfattah al-Burhan, appointed Prime Minister Kamil Idris to lead a civilian cabinet in Port Sudan. However, al-Burhan overruled Idris, retaining key figures from powerful armed groups, Gebreil Ibrahim and Mini Arko Minawi, in ministerial positions controlling government revenue. Simultaneously, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo, formed an alliance with several armed factions, including the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, to create a parallel government called Tasis. Tasis announced a 31-member leadership council, with Hemedti as head and al-Hilu as deputy.

Analysts suggest both SAF and RSF are attempting to maintain battlefield alliances by appeasing powerful militias. Tasis aims to gain international legitimacy, access aid, acquire advanced weaponry, and strengthen its negotiating position. Conversely, the Port Sudan government, while attempting to maintain control, faces increasing pressure to reward armed actors with political positions to retain their loyalty. This could lead to an expansion of ministries and potentially unsustainable financial burdens. The ongoing conflict risks creating numerous, competing militias vying for power, further destabilizing the nation and potentially leading to increased taxation and checkpoints across the country, regardless of which faction controls the area.

Impact Statement: The fragmentation of Sudan into competing armed factions and parallel governments threatens to prolong the civil war, destabilize the region, and create a protracted humanitarian crisis. The long-term implications include increased violence, economic hardship, and potential for further fracturing of the nation.