World
Atlantic Current Collapse Could Be Imminent, Study Warns
A new study concludes that the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), a major ocean current, is no longer a low-likelihood event. The research, published in Environmental Research Letters, analyzed climate models run to 2300 and 2500, revealing a potential tipping point within the next 10 to 20 years. If carbon emissions continue to rise, 70% of the models predict a collapse; even with low emissions, 25% show a shutdown.
The Amoc collapse would have severe consequences, including shifting rainfall patterns affecting millions, causing extreme cold winters and summer droughts in western Europe, and raising sea levels by 50cm. Prof Stefan Rahmstorf stated the findings are "quite shocking," emphasizing the urgent need for emissions reduction. Prof Sybren Drijfhout noted that even in intermediate and low-emission scenarios, the Amoc slows drastically by 2100. The study highlights a self-amplifying feedback loop where warmer Arctic air slows ocean cooling, reducing the sinking of water and further slowing the current.
Impact Statement: The potential collapse of the Amoc poses a significant threat to global climate stability and human societies, necessitating immediate and drastic cuts in carbon emissions to mitigate the risk.